What I Learned From CIBC’s Deputy Chief Economist — And What It Means for Hamilton Real Estate

I just got back from a conference where Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, shared some incredibly important insights about where Canada’s economy (and housing market) are headed. His outlook was clear, data-backed, and honestly, a wake-up call for anyone buying or selling in the next 12-24 months.

Here are the key takeaways, translated into plain English and what they mean for us here in Hamilton.

1. Canada Is in a “Per-Capita Recession”

Tal described our current climate as a semi-recession per capita.

Meaning: even if total GDP isn’t crashing, Canadians individually are feeling the squeeze. Higher borrowing costs, slower wage growth, and rising living expenses are all reducing real, day-to-day spending power.

Why it matters:
Homebuyers are more cautious, and sellers need to price strategically to capture demand early.

2. This Is the Biggest Market Test Since 1991

He also said this is the toughest stretch the housing market has faced since the early ‘90s.

Back then we saw:

• High interest rates

• Slower price growth

• Longer days on market

• A multi-year correction

Today’s market mirrors that environment in many ways, especially when it comes to affordability challenges and consumer confidence.

3. Rate Cuts? Don’t Count on Them Anytime Soon

According to Tal, the probability of a Bank of Canada rate cut in the near term is 0% unless something “really bad” forces the Bank’s hand.

His projection:
Expect current interest rates to hold for another 12 to 18 months.

What that means locally:
Buyers waiting for significantly cheaper borrowing costs may be waiting much longer than expected. Sellers hoping next spring brings a boost purely from lower rates may be disappointed.

4. Condos Will Likely Correct the Longest

Tal was very direct: the condo market will continue adjusting for another 1.5 to 2 years.

Why?

• Investor pressure

• High supply in major cities

• Rising carrying costs

• Slowing rent growth

Hamilton isn’t Toronto, but our condo segment is still tied to broader regional trends. Expect more price sensitivity and longer marketing periods on condos than on freeholds.

5. What This Means for Buyers & Sellers Right Now

For Sellers:

• Pricing based on today’s market not hopes for rate cuts is crucial.

• Freeholds remain more stable than condos, but days-on-market are climbing across the board.

• Homes priced correctly from Day 1 are the ones getting solid activity.

For Buyers:

• The window for negotiating power is still open.

• Waiting for rate cuts may not be a winning strategy, stability, not relief, is the near-term forecast.

• Freeholds may outperform condos over the next 24 months.

Final Thought

The message from one of Canada’s leading economists was consistent: we’re in a period of adjustment, not collapse. The market is finding its footing, and the next 12-18 months will reward buyers and sellers who act strategically and not emotionally.

If you're thinking about moving, upgrading, or selling, these insights can help shape the right timing and pricing strategy.

Happening in Hamilton

Week of Nov 21st - Nov 27th

Get into the Christmas spirit this week in Hamilton!

HESS VILLAGE TREE LIGHTING CEREMONY & WINTER MARKET (Hess Village) Tree Lighting Fri Nov 21 5pm-7pm, Holiday Market Sat Nov 22-Sun Nov 23, 11am-8pm — Join the festive start of the season with the tree lighting and the opening of the Winter Village market with local vendors, holiday spirit and downtown atmosphere. Free Click here for more info

FIRST DAY OF CHRISTMAS (Dundurn Castle) Sun Nov 23, 12pm-4pm — Step into the festive spirit as you walk through the beautifully decorated home of Sir Allan MacNab and his family. The Castle will be adorned with cedar boughs, ribbons, and dried flowers, courtesy of the Garden Club of Hamilton, creating a truly enchanting holiday atmosphere. Free with museum admission Click here for more info

THE MOM MARKET (Eastgate Square Mall) Sat Nov 29-Sun Nov 30 11am-3pm — A fun, family-friendly pop-up featuring local makers, treats, and handmade goods from Hamilton’s small business community. Free Click here for more info

Featured Listing

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a bright and functional layout with a large eat-in kitchen, formal living and dining rooms, and a cozy family room perfect for gatherings. The main floor also includes laundry and a 2-piece bath. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite offers a private 3-piece ensuite, while two additional bedrooms provide comfort for family or guests.

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